A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
